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Damian Garde of STAT talks with Liisa Bayko of Evercore ISI and Jared Holz of Mizuho at STAT in NYC. — Damian Garde of STAT, left, talked with Liisa Bayko of Evercore ISI and Jared Holz of Mizuho about the GLP-1 weight loss market. Michelle C. Gevint for STAT

NEW YORK — Will the world actually soon spend $100 billion a year on the new obesity medicines?

Plenty of people in pharma and at the banks that invest in it seem to think so. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, BMO Capital Markets and Pfizer have all arrived at the glossy, cut-for-headline number for spending by around 2030.

Yet Jared Holz, a healthcare strategist at Mizuho, is skeptical.

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A rare thyroid diagnosis led to unexpected, all